Towson, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS61 KLWX 260112
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
912 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move into the area Saturday, then meander
across the area through early next week before dissipating. A
stronger cold front will cross the area during the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak front, accompanied by multiple mid-level disturbances,
will provide adequate shower and thunderstorm chances through
the weekend. As for late this evening and overnight, heavy
fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will push southeastward
across Northeast Maryland, as well as parts of the central
Shenandoah Valley and western Virginia Piedmont. The main threat
is heavy rainfall and lightning. Winds could gust 35 to 45 mph
in the heavier thunderstorms. Most of this convection should
wain and dissipate after midnight tonight.

Saturday will start fairly quiet and humid with temperatures a
few degrees cooler than Friday and heat indices a couple of
degrees cooler than Friday. Heat indices may get close to
advisory criteria in eastern parts of the Virginia Piedmont and
eastern Virginia, particularly near the Fredericksburg area.
Will revisit this possibility overnight. In the meantime,
scattered heavy convection in the form of showers and strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. While every
location could encounter showers or a thunderstorm, a few
isolated spots could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short
period of time, frequent lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph or all
of the above. SPC has much of our region in a Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms on Saturday into Saturday night. High
temperatures lower 90s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in places
could linger through Saturday night, while other areas could be
dry.

As we get into the day Sunday into Sunday night, a more active
shower and thunderstorm day is anticipated for most. The high
pressure over the interior Southeast US and Tennessee Valley
will break down as more mid-level disturbances rotate around it
and dive across our region from the west and northwest. A
surface front will run into a more humid and hotter airmass
Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a possibility that
thunderstorms could become strong to severe once again as they
generate in or around this heat and humidity. The main threats
will be flooding rain, lightning, and damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front may dissipate to the south by Monday, allowing weak
surface high pressure to build across the area. Forcing will be
nebulous, so thunderstorm chances appear to be relatively lower and
focused on the diurnal terrain circulations. However, we will be in
northwest flow aloft around the mid-CONUS ridge, so will have to be
mindful of any remnant MCVs that could provide an extra source of
lift. On the other hand, the increased ridging will allow heat to
build again, looking to peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs return
solidly to the mid 90s with perhaps upper 90s. Heat index values
will likely top out in the 100-110 range.

A strong cold front will approach Wednesday into Thursday, though
the timing is currently uncertain. If forcing can align with peak
heating, we`ll have to monitor for the potential of stronger
thunderstorms. NBM has higher PoPs focused on Thursday, but the
front may be far enough south at that point to limit severe weather
potential. Cooler (below normal temperatures) and drier air continue
to push into the area Friday. However, can`t remove rain chances
entirely as some guidance indicates low pressure moving along the
front to our south, spreading some showers into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While there are a few strong thunderstorms, producing wind gusts
over 30 knots, heavy rain and lightning, near the MTN and BWI
terminals, some other convection seems to be missing CHO just to
the southwest this mid-evening timeframe. More showers and
thunderstorms will be dropping southeast out of central and
eastern Pennsylvania, but most should wain before reaching
Maryland. MTN and BWI would be more prone to getting additional
rain and lightning from these if the convection doesn`t wain. As
for Saturday afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms
will be rapidly developing from daytime heating and high
humidity near any of the terminals. More showers and gusty
thunderstorms could form through Sunday afternoon with
disturbances, surface front, and high humidity all becoming
present.

VFR conditions should evolve Monday through Wednesday.
Thunderstorm coverage may reduce Monday and Tuesday with weak
high pressure...highest chances near the mountains. By
Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach which could result
in greater coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
The only marine hazards that are anticipated will be Special
Marine Warnings that could be issued pending heavy showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms during the middle of this
evening, again Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday
afternoon and evening with a surface front and disturbances.

Weak high pressure Monday and Tuesday will result in light gradient
winds veering from northerly to southerly. Light southerly flow
likely continues through Wednesday. At this time, thunderstorm
coverage is forecast to be more isolated, especially Monday and
Tuesday, although strong outflow winds could occur with any storms
that do develop.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will be on the gradual rise throughout the weekend and
could reach Minor Flooding at the sensitive sites like Annapolis
by Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW